TER (Teradyne, Inc.) WATCHLIST ★★★☆☆VCP | $443.20 | 확신도 0.35
🔍 스캔 후보 이유
셋업: VCP
ADR: 4.0% · RS: 95%ile
갭: +3.1% · Vol배수: 0.4x
거래대금: $907M
진입: $443.20 · 스탑: $381.54
스탑 거리: 13.9%
타이트닝: 폴39% T=0/3 body=0.0% atr=18.77
📊 Setup Evaluator
등급: ★★★☆☆ ·
확신도: 0.50RS 95, ADR 4.0%, stop distance 13.9% — all clean. Strongest of the three: price is above rising 10/20 SMAs and breaking out of a multi-month base. BUT deterministic tightness is T=0/3 (no progressive contractions) and breakout volume is not a clear surge, so this is more of a base breakout than a textbook VCP. Quality 3, not 4.
🧠 Decision Agent
결정: WATCHLIST ·
확신도: 0.35DIFFICULT regime requires ★ 4+ to BUY; TER is the best candidate at ★ 3 only. Strong RS 95, $907M/day liquidity, price above rising 10/20 SMAs and breaking out of a multi-month base. Falls short of a BUY because tightness is T=0/3 (no progressive VCP contractions) and breakout volume is not a clear surge. Hold on watchlist for a tighter re-entry or volume confirmation. Conviction 0.50 x 0.7 (DIFFICULT) = 0.35.
⚠ Breakout bar comes after a ~32% July correction; a failed breakout here just chops back into the base. Not a textbook VCP.
👁️ LLM Vision
accumulation: highly liquid ($907M/day) semi-cap test name. Deep July correction from ~$485 to ~$330 (~32%), then orderly recovery with rising 10/20 SMAs and higher lows through Sep. Latest bar is a strong green breakout to recent highs at the $443 pivot. No single-day pump spike; volume base is steady and institutional.
ONTO (Onto Innovation Inc.) PASS ★★☆☆☆VCP | $332.95 | 확신도 0.28
🔍 스캔 후보 이유
셋업: VCP
ADR: 4.1% · RS: 97%ile
갭: +4.4% · Vol배수: 0.3x
거래대금: $219M
진입: $332.95 · 스탑: $275.98
스탑 거리: 17.1%
타이트닝: 폴61% T=1/3 body=0.0% atr=13.34
📊 Setup Evaluator
등급: ★★☆☆☆ ·
확신도: 0.40RS 97, ADR 4.1%, stop distance 17.1% (acceptable). Tightness T=1/3 — only one contraction, base is wide and whippy. The move into the pivot is a fast V-shape, not Qulla's progressive tightening with volume dry-up. Quality 2.
🧠 Decision Agent
결정: PASS ·
확신도: 0.28★ 2 in a DIFFICULT regime (needs ★ 4+). Despite RS 97, the 6-month base is wide and whippy (~44% Aug drawdown) and the move into the pivot is a fast V-recovery rather than a tight consolidation with volume dry-up. PASS. Conviction 0.40 x 0.7 = 0.28.
⚠ RS 97 and liquid; if it builds a tighter handle it could re-qualify later.
👁️ LLM Vision
mixed/choppy: strong RS (97) semi-cap but the 6-month structure is very volatile — ~$385 July high, ~$215 Aug low (~44% drop), recovery to ~$350, then back to ~$245 in Sep. Latest bar is a sharp V-recovery into the $333 pivot rather than a tight consolidation breakout. Volume is active but not clearly drying into the pivot.
AEO (American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.) PASS ★★☆☆☆VCP | $17.72 | 확신도 0.25
🔍 스캔 후보 이유
셋업: VCP
ADR: 4.1% · RS: 94%ile
갭: +0.2% · Vol배수: 0.1x
거래대금: $128M
진입: $17.72 · 스탑: $15.46
스탑 거리: 12.8%
타이트닝: 폴26% T=0/3 body=0.0% atr=0.70
📊 Setup Evaluator
등급: ★★☆☆☆ ·
확신도: 0.35RS 94, ADR 4.1%, stop distance 12.8%. Tightness T=0/3 — no contractions, just a wide choppy range with a fast recovery to prior resistance. No institutional accumulation signature; this is mean reversion into overhead supply, not a VCP breakout. Quality 2.
🧠 Decision Agent
결정: PASS ·
확신도: 0.25★ 2 in a DIFFICULT regime (needs ★ 4+). Wide sideways $15-$19 range with a V-recovery into overhead supply; no gap, T=0/3, no accumulation signature. PASS. Conviction 0.35 x 0.7 = 0.25.
⚠ None material — mean reversion into resistance, not a Qulla breakout.
👁️ LLM Vision
range/V-recovery: retail name chopping sideways in a wide $15-$19 band for the full 6 months. Dropped to ~$14.5 in early Sep then V-recovered sharply back to the top of the range ($17.72). No gap (0.2%). Volume spike on the Sep decline, not on the recovery.
🛡️ QA 품질 검수 — PASS
3개 후보(VCP 3) 검수: 위반 0건. Scanner 필터(ADR≥4%, 거래대금≥$30M, 종가≥$5, RS≥93) 모두 충족. Evaluator 경고기준(ADR>15%, 스탑>25%, 폴>500%) 해당 없음. Decision은 DIFFICULT 레짐에서 ★ 4+ 미충족으로 BUY 0건 — 규칙 준수. 모든 stop < entry, dissent 기록 완료. 매수 주문이 없어 Risk 사이징 단계는 실행되지 않음(정상).
⚠ DIFFICULT regime with 3 VCP candidates and zero BUY decisions — expected: none reached the required ★ 4+. TER (★ 3) placed on WATCHLIST.
⚠ All three candidates show weak VCP tightness (T=0/3, T=1/3, T=0/3); scanner is surfacing base breakouts / V-recoveries rather than textbook progressive contractions. No action, informational.
📈 시장 레짐 상세
SMA10: $768.18 · SMA20: $764.96
SMA10 기울기: 0.4185 · SMA20 기울기: -0.0515
SNOW (Snowflake Inc.) SMC$342.48 | 당일 전환
🟢 SMC 신호
Hull: green (당일 전환) · 내부구조: bull (I-BOS)
ADR: 4.0% · 거래대금: $1666M · RS: 71%ile (참고)
진입: $342.48 · 스탑: $316.63 · 스탑거리: 7.5%