VLO (Valero Energy Corporation) BUY ★★★★☆VCP | $436.82 | 확신도 0.70
🔍 스캔 후보 이유
셋업: VCP
ADR: 4.3% · RS: 97%ile
갭: +1.4% · Vol배수: 0.1x
거래대금: $1471M
진입: $436.82 · 스탑: $387.18
스탑 거리: 11.4%
타이트닝: 폴46% T=1/3 body=0.0% atr=14.50
📊 Setup Evaluator
등급: ★★★★☆ ·
확신도: 0.70RS 97, ADR 4.3%, stop distance 11.4%. Not a classic T1>T2>T3 VCP but a powerful trend continuation at new highs with top-tier RS and clean institutional accumulation. Highest conviction of the slate.
🧠 Decision Agent
결정: BUY ·
확신도: 0.70MOMENTUM regime allows 3+. VLO is the strongest name on the slate: ★4, RS 97, clean Stage-2 trend riding the rising 10/20 SMA to a fresh ATH breakout with steady volume. Hottest structure, top-tier RS — a textbook continuation entry.
⚠ Entry is at all-time highs rather than near a base low, so chase risk is elevated; the pattern is a trend continuation, not a classic tight T1>T2>T3 VCP. Stop distance 11.4%.
👁️ LLM Vision
accumulation: textbook Stage-2 staircase from $235 to $437, price riding the rising 10/20 SMA the entire way with steady volume. Fresh all-time-high breakout after a tight $380-410 pause. No distribution spikes.
COHU (Cohu, Inc.) BUY ★★★☆☆HTF | $71.26 | 확신도 0.50
🔍 스캔 후보 이유
셋업: HTF
ADR: 4.8% · RS: 96%ile
갭: -1.9% · Vol배수: 0.1x
거래대금: $64M
진입: $71.26 · 스탑: $65.97
스탑 거리: 7.4%
타이트닝: 폴87% T=1/3 body=0.0% atr=3.12
📊 Setup Evaluator
등급: ★★★☆☆ ·
확신도: 0.55RS 96, ADR 4.8%, stop distance 7.4% (tight, favorable R). Prior swing pullback (75->43) was deeper than the ideal 25% HTF reset, but the current base/breakout structure is clean. Solid tier-2 setup.
🧠 Decision Agent
결정: BUY ·
확신도: 0.50MOMENTUM regime allows 3+. COHU is ★3 with RS 96, a clean higher-lows recovery base breaking to new highs with the 10/20 SMA turned up. Tight 7.4% stop gives favorable R:R. Secondary conviction to VLO.
⚠ The prior swing pullback (75->43) was deeper than the ideal 25% HTF reset, so this is really a second base rather than a textbook HTF pullback. Watch for a failed breakout back below the 10 SMA.
👁️ LLM Vision
accumulation: recovered off the Aug/Sep ~$43 low, built a tight higher-lows base and is now breaking to new highs with the 10/20 SMA turned up and surfing. Volume healthy, no single-day pump.
CRDO (Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd) PASS ★★☆☆☆HTF | $224.21 | 확신도 0.00
🔍 스캔 후보 이유
셋업: HTF
ADR: 5.8% · RS: 97%ile
갭: -2.0% · Vol배수: 0.2x
거래대금: $1570M
진입: $224.21 · 스탑: $192.35
스탑 거리: 14.2%
타이트닝: 폴88% T=1/3 body=0.0% atr=15.36
📊 Setup Evaluator
등급: ★★☆☆☆ ·
확신도: 0.35RS 97 strong but the price structure is volatile and loose rather than a tight HTF continuation. Entry sits right into prior resistance with heavy overhead. Lower quality; watch rather than act.
🧠 Decision Agent
결정: PASS ·
확신도: 0.00★2 — below the MOMENTUM ★3 threshold. Price structure is choppy and loose (whipsawed $300->150->280->150), with heavy overhead supply at the $225 shelf. Not a clean HTF continuation despite strong RS 97.
⚠ Strong RS 97 and high ADR could still produce a move if it clears $225 on volume; worth keeping on a watchlist, but the structure does not warrant an entry.
👁️ LLM Vision
mixed/choppy: ran $110->$300, then whipsawed down to $150, back to $280, down to $150 again, now recovering to $224. Wide loose candles, large red bars, no clean tightening. Overhead supply at the $225 shelf.
COHR (Coherent Corp.) PASS ★★☆☆☆FLAG | $323.32 | 확신도 0.00
🔍 스캔 후보 이유
셋업: FLAG
ADR: 5.8% · RS: 95%ile
갭: -4.2% · Vol배수: 0.2x
거래대금: $2036M
진입: $323.32 · 스탑: $282.45
스탑 거리: 12.6%
타이트닝: 폴71% T=1/3 body=0.0% atr=20.51
📊 Setup Evaluator
등급: ★★☆☆☆ ·
확신도: 0.35RS 95, ADR 5.8%. This is a recovery off a deep drawdown rather than a tight flag consolidation off a fresh pole. Heavy overhead supply from the summer highs. Low quality.
🧠 Decision Agent
결정: PASS ·
확신도: 0.00★2 — below the MOMENTUM ★3 threshold. This is a recovery off a deep ~50% drawdown from the June $445 high into overhead resistance at ~$323, not a tight flag off a fresh pole. Wide choppy range.
⚠ RS 95 remains respectable; a decisive volume breakout above the summer shelf would upgrade it, but no entry here.
👁️ LLM Vision
mixed: deep ~50% correction from the June $445 high down to ~$220, now grinding back up into the $323 overhead shelf. Range 270-345 is wide and choppy, not a tight flag after a pole.
🛡️ QA 품질 검수 — PASS
4 candidates (COHU/VLO/CRDO/COHR), 2 BUY (VLO ★4, COHU ★3), 2 PASS (CRDO ★2, COHR ★2). 0 violations, 3 warnings. Scanner filters, evaluator warning thresholds, and MOMENTUM decision gate all satisfied; stop<entry verified for both BUYs. No trade should be cancelled.
⚠ Risk sizing step (half_kelly_sizing.py) not part of this scan pipeline; sized_orders.json absent, so Half-Kelly position/risk checks are deferred to the execution stage.
⚠ VLO BUY entry ($436.82) is at a fresh all-time high and COHU ($71.26) at new recovery highs; both are breakout (not base-low) entries, so chase risk is elevated — flagged in each decision's dissent.
⚠ COHU HTF prior pullback (75->43, ~43%) exceeds the ideal 25% HTF reset; treated as a second base rather than a textbook HTF.
📈 시장 레짐 상세
SMA10: $770.45 · SMA20: $767.37
SMA10 기울기: 0.4328 · SMA20 기울기: 0.3086
SNAP (Snap Inc.) SMC$5.83 | 1봉 전 전환
🟢 SMC 신호
Hull: green (1봉 전 전환) · 내부구조: bull (I-BOS)
ADR: 4.4% · 거래대금: $175M · RS: 89%ile (참고)
진입: $5.83 · 스탑: $5.18 · 스탑거리: 11.2%
U (Unity Software Inc.) SMC$46.42 | 1봉 전 전환
🟢 SMC 신호
Hull: green (1봉 전 전환) · 내부구조: bull (I-CHoCH)
ADR: 4.7% · 거래대금: $418M · RS: 96%ile (참고)
진입: $46.42 · 스탑: $38.44 · 스탑거리: 17.2%
AFRM (Affirm Holdings, Inc.) SMC$75.61 | 2봉 전 전환
🟢 SMC 신호
Hull: green (2봉 전 전환) · 내부구조: bull (I-CHoCH)
ADR: 4.2% · 거래대금: $388M · RS: 82%ile (참고)
진입: $75.61 · 스탑: $67.15 · 스탑거리: 11.2%