ILMN (Illumina, Inc.) BUY ★★★★☆VCP | $278.63 | 확신도 0.48
🔍 스캔 후보 이유
셋업: VCP
ADR: 4.6% · RS: 97%ile
갭: -0.0% · Vol배수: 0.1x
거래대금: $1004M
진입: $278.63 · 스탑: $247.46
스탑 거리: 11.2%
타이트닝: 폴51% T=1/3 body=0.0% atr=11.84
📊 Setup Evaluator
등급: ★★★★☆ ·
확신도: 0.68RS 96.7%, ADR 4.6%, $Vol $1.0B — strong liquid name at ATH. Tight contraction with volume drying (vol_ratio 0.1), higher lows, rising MAs. Stop dist 11.2%, no warnings. Highest-quality setup of the batch; meets DIFFICULT ★4+ bar.
🧠 Decision Agent
결정: BUY ·
확신도: 0.48Only ★4 candidate in a DIFFICULT regime. Clean power trend surfing rising 10/20 SMA to new ATH, volume dried into the pivot (vol_ratio 0.1), RS 96.7%, liquid ($1.0B $Vol). Meets the ★4+ gate; conviction 0.68 × 0.7 (DIFFICULT) = 0.48.
⚠ Price is extended after a strong run — entry at ATH risks a shakeout; stop dist 11.2% keeps risk ≤1% only at a small size. Not buying strength blindly — size per Half Kelly.
👁️ LLM Vision
accumulation: clean stair-step power trend from ~$120 (Apr) to $278 (Oct), price surfing rising 10/20 SMA the entire move. Volume dried up into the pivot after a healthy Sep absorption candle. Breaking to new highs at the entry line. Genuine institutional accumulation, not a spike.
ONTO (Onto Innovation Inc.) WATCHLIST ★★★☆☆VCP | $328.42 | 확신도 0.32
🔍 스캔 후보 이유
셋업: VCP
ADR: 4.0% · RS: 98%ile
갭: -0.0% · Vol배수: 0.1x
거래대금: $224M
진입: $328.42 · 스탑: $279.73
스탑 거리: 14.8%
타이트닝: 폴61% T=1/3 body=0.0% atr=13.23
📊 Setup Evaluator
등급: ★★★☆☆ ·
확신도: 0.45RS 98.0% strong, ADR 4.0%, but the base is too wide/deep for a clean VCP — contractions are not progressively tighter. Stop dist 14.8%, no warnings. Below the DIFFICULT ★4+ threshold.
🧠 Decision Agent
결정: WATCHLIST ·
확신도: 0.32★3 — below the DIFFICULT ★4+ threshold. RS 98% is strong but the base is a wide, choppy ~44% double-top, not a tight VCP. Watch for a clean break-and-hold above $328 on volume before acting.
⚠ Strong RS could pull it to a ★4 if it tightens; not a PASS, but not entry-grade in DIFFICULT.
👁️ LLM Vision
mixed: wide, choppy multi-month base. Ran to $385 (Jul) then a deep ~44% pullback to $215 (Aug), whipsawed back and forth, now re-approaching the top of the range at $328. Volume erratic. More of a volatile double-top area than a tight VCP; re-claim is constructive but base quality is poor.
RMBS (Rambus Inc.) WATCHLIST ★★★☆☆VCP | $109.67 | 확신도 0.29
🔍 스캔 후보 이유
셋업: VCP
ADR: 4.5% · RS: 94%ile
갭: -0.3% · Vol배수: 0.1x
거래대금: $242M
진입: $109.67 · 스탑: $102.12
스탑 거리: 6.9%
타이트닝: 폴39% T=0/3 body=0.0% atr=5.12
📊 Setup Evaluator
등급: ★★★☆☆ ·
확신도: 0.42RS 94.4% (lower end), ADR 4.5%. Low vol_ratio reflects the quiet consolidation but the preceding price action is a downtrend reversal, not accumulation into a pivot. Stop dist 6.9%, no warnings. Does not meet ★4+.
🧠 Decision Agent
결정: WATCHLIST ·
확신도: 0.29★3 — below ★4+. This is a V-recovery reclaiming $110 prior support after a ~53% decline, not a contraction near highs. Needs to build a proper base before it is entry-grade.
⚠ Sharp reclaim could resolve higher; keep on watch, do not chase the recovery.
👁️ LLM Vision
recovery, not VCP: ran to $170 (Jun), then a prolonged ~53% decline to ~$80 (Sep), now a sharp V-recovery reclaiming the $110 prior-support line. This is a bottoming/recovery reclaim rather than a tight contraction near highs. Volume picking up on the bounce is positive but the structure lacks a proper VCP base.
SITM (SiTime Corporation) WATCHLIST ★★★☆☆VCP | $707.54 | 확신도 0.29
🔍 스캔 후보 이유
셋업: VCP
ADR: 5.5% · RS: 93%ile
갭: +0.5% · Vol배수: 0.1x
거래대금: $290M
진입: $707.54 · 스탑: $608.91
스탑 거리: 13.9%
타이트닝: 폴62% T=0/3 body=0.0% atr=37.54
📊 Setup Evaluator
등급: ★★★☆☆ ·
확신도: 0.42RS 93.4% — lowest of the batch — ADR 5.5%. Wide, sloppy consolidation after a blow-off; not progressive contraction. Stop dist 13.9%, no warnings. Below the DIFFICULT ★4+ bar.
🧠 Decision Agent
결정: WATCHLIST ·
확신도: 0.29★3 — below ★4+. Wide 4-month base after a parabolic top; entry sits mid-range, not above a clean pivot. Lowest RS (93.4%) of the batch. Watch for a decisive breakout above the congestion.
⚠ Mid-range entry in congestion is low-probability in DIFFICULT; monitor only.
👁️ LLM Vision
mixed: parabolic top to $900 (May), then a very wide 4-month base oscillating $470-$760. Now grinding back to the mid-range $707 entry. Base is far too wide to be a quality VCP and the entry sits inside a congested zone, not above a clean pivot. Volume unremarkable.
AEO (American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.) PASS ★★☆☆☆VCP | $17.53 | 확신도 0.00
🔍 스캔 후보 이유
셋업: VCP
ADR: 4.0% · RS: 95%ile
갭: +0.2% · Vol배수: 0.1x
거래대금: $129M
진입: $17.53 · 스탑: $15.92
스탑 거리: 9.2%
타이트닝: 폴26% T=0/3 body=0.0% atr=0.71
📊 Setup Evaluator
등급: ★★☆☆☆ ·
확신도: 0.35RS 95% but on a $17 range-bound stock — weaker signal than high-RS on a trending liquid name. ADR 4.0%, $Vol $129M (thinnest). No VCP tightening; entry inside chop. Stop dist 9.2%, no warnings. Clear PASS-quality in DIFFICULT.
🧠 Decision Agent
결정: PASS ·
확신도: 0.00★2 — choppy 6-month sideways range with a Sep distribution spike; entry is mid-range, no VCP tightening. Fails the ★4+ gate decisively. PASS.
⚠ None — range-bound chop, no edge.
👁️ LLM Vision
anomaly/range: choppy sideways channel $14.5-$20 for the full 6 months with no directional trend. Entry at $17.53 is mid-range, not a breakout pivot. A large red volume spike in Sep (distribution) preceded the latest bounce. Low-priced name with no clean accumulation structure.
🛡️ QA 품질 검수 — PASS
5 VCP 후보 검수 완료, 위반 0건. Scanner: ADR≥4%, $Vol≥$30M, 종가≥$5, RS≥93 전원 통과. Evaluator: ADR>15%·스탑>25%·폴>500% 해당 없음, 'anomaly' 판정(AEO)은 ★2로 적정, 모든 reasoning에 차트 관찰 포함. Decision: DIFFICULT 레짐에서 ★4 ILMN만 BUY(conv 0.68×0.7=0.48), ★3 3종 WATCHLIST, ★2 AEO PASS — 게이트 준수, dissent 전건 기록, stop<entry 전건. 경고 3건은 매매 허용 범위.
⚠ SITM: RS 93.4% sits right at the 93 floor and ADR 5.5% — acceptable but the weakest edge of the batch (correctly held at WATCHLIST).
⚠ ONTO: stop distance 14.8% is the widest among live candidates (<25% limit) — sizing must keep risk ≤1% (correctly WATCHLIST, not BUY).
⚠ Half Kelly sizing (sized_orders.json) not produced in this scan-only run — position sizing/risk-per-trade is deferred to the execution step; no order was sized or placed here.
📈 시장 레짐 상세
SMA10: $767.84 · SMA20: $764.95
SMA10 기울기: 0.3113 · SMA20 기울기: -0.0281