CRWD (CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.) WATCHLIST ★★★★☆FLAG | $247.74 | 확신도 0.19
🔍 스캔 후보 이유
셋업: FLAG
ADR: 5.8% · RS: 96%ile
갭: -0.5% · Vol배수: 0.2x
거래대금: $2857M
진입: $247.74 · 스탑: $206.74
스탑 거리: 16.5%
타이트닝: 폴39% T=1/3 body=0.0% atr=14.17
📊 Setup Evaluator
등급: ★★★★☆ ·
확신도: 0.62RS 96.4, ADR 5.8%, dvol $2.86B. Textbook FLAG continuation: 20%+ prior leg, tight range (T=1/3), higher lows, breakout at pivot $247.74. Stop $206.74 => stop distance 16.5% (<25%). Best-quality structure of the three. No warnings triggered.
🧠 Decision Agent
결정: WATCHLIST ·
확신도: 0.19Cleanest structure of the day (★4): 6-month markup with higher lows surfing the rising 10/20 SMA, tight consolidation, breakout to new highs on healthy volume. BUT market regime is BEAR — FLAG setups take conviction x0.3, so evaluator 0.62 -> 0.19. Qulla does not chase FLAG/HTF continuations in a hostile tape. Keep on watchlist; only actionable if regime flips to MOMENTUM/DIFFICULT.
⚠ Structurally this is the strongest candidate and RS 96 is high; in a MOMENTUM regime this would be a BUY. The only thing blocking it is the market regime gate, not the chart.
👁️ LLM Vision
accumulation: clean 6-month markup $100->$247 with consistent higher lows surfing a rising 10/20 SMA. Orderly pullback to ~$205 in early Sept, then a tight higher-lows consolidation breaking to new highs on a green volume expansion. Volume distribution is healthy with no anomalous single-day spikes — genuine institutional accumulation.
MRNA (Moderna, Inc.) PASS ★★☆☆☆VCP | $181.42 | 확신도 0.00
🔍 스캔 후보 이유
셋업: VCP
ADR: 7.2% · RS: 100%ile
갭: -2.5% · Vol배수: 0.3x
거래대금: $2622M
진입: $181.42 · 스탑: $135.61
스탑 거리: 25.3%
타이트닝: 폴237% T=0/3 body=0.0% atr=11.89
📊 Setup Evaluator
등급: ★★☆☆☆ ·
확신도: 0.28RS 100, ADR 7.2%, dvol $2.62B. WARNING: stop $135.61 => stop distance (181.42-135.61)/181.42 = 25.3% > 25% ('매매 불가' threshold). Biotech gap-driven move with high failure risk per Qulla. Fails on stop distance and lacks genuine VCP structure.
🧠 Decision Agent
결정: PASS ·
확신도: 0.00BEAR regime: VCP setups are auto-PASS. Also fails on its own merits — stop distance 25.3% exceeds the 25% '매매 불가' limit, and the advance is a single biotech catalyst gap on a lone ~200M-share volume spike, not accumulation (high failure risk per Qulla).
⚠ None. Both the regime gate and the stop-distance/volume-anomaly warnings independently reject this.
👁️ LLM Vision
anomaly-driven: flat ~$50 base for months, then a single violent gap candle to ~$175 on a lone ~200M-share volume spike (biotech catalyst). Price consolidated $140-160 and is now pushing new highs. The move is powered by one catalyst bar, not steady accumulation — classic spike/news structure, not a VCP contraction sequence (T=0/3, pole 237%).
MDB (MongoDB, Inc.) PASS ★★☆☆☆VCP | $409.64 | 확신도 0.00
🔍 스캔 후보 이유
셋업: VCP
ADR: 4.7% · RS: 93%ile
갭: +0.5% · Vol배수: 0.2x
거래대금: $760M
진입: $409.64 · 스탑: $358.38
스탑 거리: 12.5%
타이트닝: 폴58% T=0/3 body=0.0% atr=19.74
📊 Setup Evaluator
등급: ★★☆☆☆ ·
확신도: 0.32RS 93.4 (borderline), ADR 4.7%, dvol $760M. Not a textbook VCP: no progressive contraction, rolling/overhead-supply structure just under the Aug highs. Stop $358.38 => stop distance 12.5% (OK). Near-term messy; low conviction.
🧠 Decision Agent
결정: PASS ·
확신도: 0.00BEAR regime: VCP setups are auto-PASS. Independently weak anyway — rounded top after the Aug run, ~25% pullback and choppy recovery just under overhead supply, no clean contraction (T=0/3), RS 93 borderline.
⚠ None. Regime gate and chart quality agree.
👁️ LLM Vision
mixed/choppy: strong Aug run to ~$470 then a rounded top and ~25% pullback to ~$355, now recovering to $409 near prior resistance. 10/20 SMAs flat and converging, no clean tightening contractions (T=0/3). Volume unremarkable — recovery bounce rather than a resolved VCP.
🛡️ QA 품질 검수 — PASS
BEAR regime. 3 candidates (VCP x2, FLAG x1). Scanner filters clean (ADR/dvol/close/RS all pass). Evaluator read all charts and correctly flagged MRNA's stop-distance and volume-anomaly issues. Decision applied BEAR gates correctly: both VCPs auto-PASS, CRWD FLAG -> WATCHLIST (conv x0.3). 0 BUY orders, so no risk sizing required. 0 violations, 3 warnings. No trade needs to be cancelled.
⚠ MRNA: stop distance 25.3% > 25% 'meaewe bulga' threshold — correctly rated ★2 and PASSed (not judged tradeable). No violation.
⚠ MRNA: advance driven by a single ~200M-share catalyst gap (volume anomaly), not accumulation — correctly PASSed.
⚠ CRWD: structurally the strongest candidate (★4, RS 96) but held to WATCHLIST solely by the BEAR regime FLAG x0.3 gate; revisit if regime improves.
📈 시장 레짐 상세
SMA10: $762.84 · SMA20: $765.21
SMA10 기울기: -0.1395 · SMA20 기울기: -0.0176
SMCI (Super Micro Computer, Inc.) SMC$40.81 | 당일 전환
🟢 SMC 신호
Hull: green (당일 전환) · 내부구조: bull (I-BOS)
ADR: 5.1% · 거래대금: $1829M · RS: 66%ile (참고)
진입: $40.81 · 스탑: $35.36 · 스탑거리: 13.4%
OLLI (Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.) SMC$82.65 | 당일 전환
🟢 SMC 신호
Hull: green (당일 전환) · 내부구조: bull (I-BOS)
ADR: 4.6% · 거래대금: $127M · RS: 85%ile (참고)
진입: $82.65 · 스탑: $71.28 · 스탑거리: 13.8%
RMBS (Rambus Inc.) SMC$106.33 | 당일 전환
🟢 SMC 신호
Hull: green (당일 전환) · 내부구조: bull (I-CHoCH)
ADR: 4.0% · 거래대금: $206M · RS: 97%ile (참고)
진입: $106.33 · 스탑: $80.00 · 스탑거리: 24.8%
COHR (Coherent Corp.) SMC$313.16 | 1봉 전 전환
🟢 SMC 신호
Hull: green (1봉 전 전환) · 내부구조: bull (I-BOS)
ADR: 5.4% · 거래대금: $2057M · RS: 77%ile (참고)
진입: $313.16 · 스탑: $265.49 · 스탑거리: 15.2%
PANW (Palo Alto Networks, Inc.) SMC$367.75 | 2봉 전 전환
🟢 SMC 신호
Hull: green (2봉 전 전환) · 내부구조: bull (I-CHoCH)
ADR: 5.0% · 거래대금: $2259M · RS: 88%ile (참고)
진입: $367.75 · 스탑: $327.05 · 스탑거리: 11.1%
TWLO (Twilio Inc.) SMC$277.56 | 2봉 전 전환
🟢 SMC 신호
Hull: green (2봉 전 전환) · 내부구조: bull (I-BOS)
ADR: 4.4% · 거래대금: $475M · RS: 98%ile (참고)
진입: $277.56 · 스탑: $222.63 · 스탑거리: 19.8%
ARM (Arm Holdings plc) SMC$326.29 | 2봉 전 전환
🟢 SMC 신호
Hull: green (2봉 전 전환) · 내부구조: bull (I-CHoCH)
ADR: 4.8% · 거래대금: $1115M · RS: 99%ile (참고)
진입: $326.29 · 스탑: $238.03 · 스탑거리: 27.0%